In my forthcoming book (Princeton University Press, February 2012) I
argue that there is little chance that the euro survives the next few
years, or that we avoid major sovereign restructurings and/or defaults.
I am not just talking about Greece, by the way. I think a Spanish
devaluation (accompanied inevitably by a sovereign debt restructuring)
is pretty much a sure thing too, along with devaluations among many of
the other obvious suspects.
After I turned in the completed manuscript of my upcoming book, my
editors were a little worried about my extreme pessimism over the euro,
and suggested that I hedge a little so as not to look foolish if these
things didn’t happen, but honestly I am less worried about that
possibility than I am worried that by the time my book comes out Spain
will have already abandoned the euro.